Risk Modeling
Every government function faces risk differently, and measuring them all the same way misses what matters most. We design purpose-built models for each function, capturing the specific risk signals that drive better decisions. Here are three quick examples.
Procurement Risk Model
In procurement, we analyzed thousands of contracts to score supplier concentration, exception use, pricing variance, and cycle time. We used Jenks natural breaks to tier risk and anomaly detection to surface contract splitting and irregular prices.
Environmental Risk Model
We integrated asset registries and compliance histories from over 40 sites managing storage tank systems, translating asset attributes into measurable risks and controls. Using historical performance data, we modeled incident likelihood and time-to-failure, then applied Monte Carlo simulations to assess extreme weather impacts. The output—a departmental profile—links capital planning directly to climate and regulatory obligations. Separate models for species at risk, halocarbons, and other environmental priorities are combined into an AI-driven Environmental Risk Dashboard, giving decision-makers a clear, consolidated view of their environmental exposure.
we turn PDFs into structured records with entity extraction and topic modeling. Poisson models score risks like ineligible spending. Jenks natural breaks set oversight tiers and feed a program profile that rolls up to strategic and reputational risk.
Grants and Contributions Risk Model